One last chance to get our start of 2025 deal:

As the housing industry, investors, and stakeholders prepare for the 2025 housing market, we are excited to offer you an exclusive one-time opportunity to secure an annual subscription to ResiClub PRO for $197, which represents a 34% discount from the normal $299 price!

If you upgrade by tomorrow at the $197 price point, you’ll be grandfathered into that annual price for as long as you continue to subscribe.

🚨 Click here to sign up as a paid member of ResiClub PRO for the discounted price of $197 per year 🚨

As a paid member, you will receive around three additional research articles per week, featuring exclusive analysis, data, interviews, and proprietary survey results. ResiClub PRO members also get to attend my monthly webinar and use our charts and maps on your own blogs, marketing materials, and websites.

Before borrowing costs surged, a remarkable 85.5% of U.S. mortgage borrowers had interest rates below 5.0% in Q1 2022.

However, as mortgage rates remain “higher for longer,” that share continues to shrink. Most new borrowers are now predominantly taking out loans with rates with a 6-handle or 7-handle.

Indeed, according to newly released third-quarter data from the FHFA, 73.3% of U.S. mortgage borrowers currently have interest rates below 5.0%. This marks a 12.2 percentage-point decline from the historic Q1 2022 level (85.5%).

Now let’s flip the data.

Among outstanding mortgage borrowers, here’s the share with a mortgage rate at or above 6.0%:

Q3 2013 —> 29.0% 📉

Q3 2014 —> 25.0% 📉

Q3 2015 —> 21.7% 📉

Q3 2016 —> 17.8% 📉

Q3 2017 —> 15.2% 📉

Q3 2018 —> 13.1% 📉

Q3 2019 —> 11.5% 📉

Q3 2020 —> 9.9% 📉

Q3 2021 —> 8.1% 📉

Q3 2022 —> 7.5% 📉

Q3 2023 —> 12.2% 📈

Q3 2024 —> 17.2% 📈

As more borrowers take out mortgages with rates in the 6% and 7% range, the mortgage industry may see opportunities for “refi boomlets.” A notable example occurred in September 2024, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate briefly dropped to 6.11%, prompting some borrowers with recent high-rate loans to refinance and secure payment relief.

Today, we received the first average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reading of 2025, which came in at 7.07%.

Here are the first readings of the year over the past decade:

2015 —> 3.80%

2016 —> 4.02%

2017 —> 4.18%

2018 —> 4.05%

2019 —> 4.55%

2020 —> 3.74%

2021 —> 2.76%

2022 —> 3.29%

2023 —> 6.45%

2024 —> 6.72%

2025 —> 7.07%

Among the 14 rate forecasts we track for ResiClub PRO members, the average model expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to finish 2025 at 6.34%.

Keep in mind that economic forecasting has never been easy, and it becomes even more challenging coming out of a period with unprecedented events like COVID-19 lockdowns and extraordinary levels of fiscal and monetary intervention.